Svenskt Näringsliv Survey

A survey published by Svenskt Näringsliv has identified heightened concerns on trade risks among Swedish companies in relation to the U.S. and China. The survey, conducted shortly after President Trump's inauguration, highlights the impact of political signals and policy implementations on business sentiment in Sweden. Concerning EU-China trade, policy implementation, especially in the sustainability domain (e.g., CBAM, CSRD, CSRDDD), significantly impacts European businesses' approach to trade with China, as evidenced by the concern surrounding imports. However, in regard to EU-U.S. trade,  President Trump's vocal tariff threats have caused uncertainty, particularly impacting businesses within export-focused industries. Nevertheless, the survey found lower concern about U.S. imports compared to exports due to the EU’s restrained reporting on potential countermeasures.

One-third of companies importing from the U.S. intend to reduce their imports in the event of a trade conflict. Additionally, one-fifth of exporters to the U.S. anticipate a decrease in exports, with U.S. exports being particularly vulnerable. According to the survey, the industrial sector perceives greater risks to imports and exports than the service industries, likely due to the risk of tariffs. However, the survey found that service imports from the U.S. are an exception, where the risks are perceived as greater, possibly due to the EU's digital regulations that could affect the relationship between the EU and the U.S.

In the event of trade conflicts, the majority (approximately 50%) of companies, particularly in the service sector, believe they will raise their prices for end consumers. The survey suggests that potential trade conflicts may lead to inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, and a reduction in trade volume. 

The Swedish survey is available here.