U.S. Presidential Election Briefing with Jon Decker

On Tuesday, together with our fellow Nordic AmChams, we hosted a virtual session featuring Jon Decker, a seasoned member of the White House Press Corps, to discuss the upcoming U.S. election. Decker, known for accurately predicting the 2016 and 2020 elections, shared his insights on the current race.

Decker walked the audience through the consensus Electoral College map, and made some predictions about the outcomes in many of the seven key swing states: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. He emphasized that the outcome in these states is crucial to the overall result and cautioned against relying on national polling.

Decker noted that some of the remaining states were too close to call, with polling indicating a tight race. He noted that presidential debate(s), such as the one held by ABC later that night, could significantly influence the outcome, citing the June 27th debate where President Biden’s performance led to his withdrawal from the race.

During the Q&A session, Decker highlighted that Harris had more at stake in that night’s debate because she is less familiar to undecided voters than Trump. He also discussed how the new Electoral Count Reform Act addresses vulnerabilities exposed by the efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election and makes clear that the Vice President’s role in opening the electoral votes is ceremonial and that while election results can still be challenged in court, recent attempts have been unsuccessful.

Decker also touched on down-ballot races, the key issues both campaigns are focusing on, noting that Harris has prioritized middle-class voters and reproductive rights, while Trump has concentrated on border security and boosting U.S. business. The Senate race looks promising for Republicans, especially with the likely flip of Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia.